Weekly market brief - 29 August 2025

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* U.S. GDP higher-than-expected
* Trump tries to cook Lisa

Currency Outlook

  • South Africa has set up a panel to tackle extreme wealth inequality as part of its Group of 20 chairmanship, a step that may irk the U.S.
  • The Extraordinary Committee of Independent Experts was commissioned by South African President Cyril Ramaphosa and will be chaired by Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz. It will present its first report on global inequality to G20 leaders, along with possible solutions to address the issue. South Africa is due to host the leaders in November.
  • “People across the world know how extreme inequality undermines their dignity and chance for a better future,” Ramaphosa said in a statement on Thursday. “They saw the brutal unfairness of vaccine apartheid, where millions in the Global South were denied the vaccines to save them. They see the impacts of rising food and energy prices, of debt, of trade wars, all driving this growing gap between the rich and the rest of the world, undermining progress and economic dynamism.”
  • Recent analysis shows that since 2015, the world’s wealthiest 1% have increased their wealth by more than USD 33.9 trillion in real terms - more than enough to eliminate annual global poverty 22 times over.
  • “Inequality was always a choice, and G20 nations have the power to choose a different path, on a range of economic and social policies,” Stiglitz said.
  • U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has previously criticised South Africa for using its G-20 presidency to focus on “solidarity, equality and sustainability,” and boycotted a meeting of the group’s foreign ministers in Johannesburg in February in protest. (Bloomberg article dated 29.08.2025)
  • The rand has been trading in a narrow range for most of the week. A weekly close below R17.73/USD could indicate further strength to R17.65/USD, R17.50/USD, R17.35/USD and give way to R17.00/USD levels. A close above R17.73/USD can push the rand towards R17.80/USD, R17.95/USD and subsequently R18.05/USD levels.

Local Data

  • The SARB’s leading business cycle indicator rose 0.4% m/m in June, to 111.7 from 111.3 in May, halting two months of declines.
  • Producer price inflation on final manufactured goods (headline PPI) increased by more-than-expected in July, rising 1.5% y/y from 0.6% y/y in June.
  • M3 money supply for July came slowed to 6.75% y/y to an all-time high of R from 7.2% y/y in June.
  • PSCE increased 5.84% y/y in July to R4.98 trillion, up from 4.98% y/y in June.

Interest Rate Outlook

  • The SARB cut the repurchase rate by 25 basis points to 7.00% on 31 July, with the prime lending rate decreasing to 10.50%. The decision was unanimous.
  • The next rate decision of the Monetary Policy Committee will be announced on 18 September 2025.

International News

  • US
    • U.S. jobless claims came in at 229,000 last week versus 234,000 the previous week.
    • U.S. GDP came in higher-than-expected in Q2:25, at 3.3% q/q, from a previous estimate of 3.0% q/q, and from a 0.5% q/q contraction in Q1:25.
    • U.S. durable goods orders decreased by 2.8% m/m in July, after declining by 9.4% m/m in June.
    • The U.S. Conference Board consumer confidence index came in better-than-expected, albeit lower at 97.4 in August, from an upwardly revised 98.7 in July.
    • The U.S. FHFA house price index decreased by 0.2% m/m in June, after having fallen by a revised 0.1% m/m in May.
  • Euro zone
    • ECB President Christine Lagarde commented that the Eurozone economy is holding up reasonably well.
    • The German IFO business climate index increased more-than-expected in August, to 89.0 (the highest since 2022), from 88.6 in July.
    • Eurozone consumer confidence (final estimate) for August remained unchanged from its previous estimate, at -15.5, from -14.7 in July.
  • United Kingdom
    • According to the British Retail Consortium (BRC), UK shop prices increased 0.9% y/y in August, after having increased by 0.7% y/y in July.
    • UK PPI increased by 1.9% y/y in June, following a 1.3% y/y increase in May.
  • Australia
    • Australian Bureau of Statistics data showed that the monthly consumer price index (CPI) increased from 1.9% y/y to a striking 2.8% y/y in July, much higher than the median forecast of 2.3%.
    • The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported private capital expenditure went up by 0.2% q/q in the second quarter. This was much lower than the expected 0.7% increase forecast.
  • Japan
    • The Core CPI, which excludes of food and energy prices but includes oil prices, cooled to 2.5% m/m in August from 2.9% m/m in July.
    • Japan’s unemployment rate fell from 2.5% in June to 2.3% in July, much lower than the economists forecast for remaining at 2.5%.

Precious Metals

  • Gold fell to $3,350/oz earlier this week on a firmer dollar and short-term profit-taking.
  • The precious metals rose to an over one-month high of $3,423/oz on Thursday on a weaker dollar and safe-have demand while investors awaited Friday's U.S. PCE inflation data for cues on the Federal Reserve's policy path.

Base Metals

  • 3m copper rose to $9,862/t earlier this week on a pick-up in Chinese export orders.
  • The base metal was supported around $9,800/t on Thursday on a weaker dollar and increased appetite for risky assets after results from Nvidia reassured markets about the AI boom. However, rising LME stocks capped gains.

Oil

  • Brent rose to $69.07/bbl. on Monday as geopolitical tensions led to supply concerns.
  • The price fell to $67.04bbl. on Thursday on expectations of lower U.S. fuel demand at the end of the summer travel season.