Weekly market brief - 13 November 2025

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* Our FM made it official – inflation targeting is the new buzz word
* Market anticipates S.A. credit upgrade following MTBS
* Fed will still lack data ahead of December meeting
* President Trump signs legislation to end U.S. government shutdown
* U.K. GDP declines

Currency Outlook

  • Telecommunications giant Vodacom has entered an agreement with SpaceX's Starlink. Starlink, owned by Elon Musk, is one of the world's largest satellite broadband providers.
  • President Donald Trump has said that no U.S. official would attend the gathering over widely discredited claims that white people are being persecuted in South Africa.
  • Emerging market stocks extended gains after U.S. President Donald Trump signed legislation ending the longest government shutdown in history, while South African markets rallied on optimism over the budget review.
  • President Cyril Ramaphosa, in his weekly newsletter, urged global leaders to take decisive action to tackle rising inequality, warning that it threatens stability, prosperity, and democracy worldwide.
  • A weekly close below R17.00/USD could indicate further strength to R16.85/USD and subsequently R16.65/USD, giving way to R16.50/USD levels. A close above R17.00/USD can push the rand towards R17.20/USD, R17.50/USD and subsequently R17.80/USD levels.

Local Data

  • Stats SA released the Quarterly Labour Force Survey for Q3:25 on Tuesday.
  • Manufacturing output fell 0.5% m/m in September, down from a 0.7% gain in August.
  • According to Stats SA data on Thursday, mining production increased by 1.2% y/y in September.
  • South Africa’s Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS), delivered by Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana on Wednesday, was received with cautious optimism.
  • National Treasury is hopeful that credit ratings agencies will acknowledge South Afrida’s improving public finances.

Interest Rate Outlook

  • The SARB decided to hold the repo rate at 7.0% and the prime lending rate at 10.50% at its September meeting. The decision was not unanimous, with four of the MPC members voting to leave the rate unchanged while two voted for a 25 basis points cut.
  • The next rate decision of the Monetary Policy Committee will be announced on 20 November 2025.

International News

  • US
    • President Trump signed legislation on Wednesday to end the U.S. government shutdown after lawmakers approved a temporary funding bill, ending a record 43-day impasse.
    • The U.S. NFIB small business optimism index slipped to 98.2 in October, from 98.8 in September.
  • Euro zone
    • Investor sentiment in the Eurozone declined in November, against expectations for an improvement, according to the latest Sentix index.
    • The ECB released its Economic Bulletin today.
    • Eurozone industrial production increased less-than-expected in September, by 0.2% m/m, after having declined by 1.1% m/m in August.
  • United Kingdom
    • The UK unemployment rate increased more-than-expected in September, while wage growth slowed more-than-expected.
    • UK GDP growth slowed in Q3:25, rising just 0.1% q/q, compared to 0.3% q/q in Q2:25.
    • The UK housing market remains subdued, with current conditions pointing towards falling prices.
    • Manufacturing output declined sharply by 1.7% m/m in September, reversing a downwardly revised 0.6% m/m increase in August.
  • China
    • China’s consumer price inflation (CPI) eased in October and consumer prices returned to positive territory as the government took steps to curb over capacity and cut-throat competition among firms.
    • China’s producer price inflation (PPI) dropped to 2.1% y/y in October from 2.3% y/y in September.
    • New loans by Chinese banks plunged in October compared to the previous month as business and households remained wary on taking on more debt due to economic uncertainties and trade tensions between Beijing and Washington.
  • Australia
    • Employment in Australia increased in October as firms hired 42,200 more full-time workers, reducing the unemployment rate from a four-year high, bolstering a growing view that the current easing cycle may have run its course.
    • The unemployment rate dropped from 4.5% in September to 4.3% in October.
  • Japan
    • Japan’s current account stood at JPY 4.48 trillion in September, much higher than economists forecast of a JPY 2.47 trillion surplus.
    • The corporate goods price index (CGPI) increased 2.7% y/y in October slowing from 2.8% y/y in September.

Precious Metals

  • Gold remained well-supported this week, by a weaker U.S. dollar and expectations of monetary easing, with prices holding above the $4,100/oz level and posting solid gains alongside silver. Market sentiment was further lifted by news of the U.S. government reopening, easing concerns over fiscal uncertainty.
  • By Thursday, gold reached $4,239.02/oz, the highest level since October 21, supported by expectations that a U.S. government reopening will resume the flow of economic data and strengthen bets on further interest rate cuts.

Base Metals

  • Copper prices rose on Monday after China’s October data signalled easing deflation. Consumer prices turned positive while factory-gate declines narrowed, reinforcing optimism for stronger demand from the world’s top metals consumer.
  • Thursday saw copper maintain momentum as fiscal uncertainty eased, but gains were capped by concerns over weak Chinese credit growth ahead of key economic releases.

Oil

  • Oil prices settled higher on Monday, as markets reacted to potential supply disruptions from new U.S. sanctions and Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries. Gains were capped by forecasts of a crude surplus.
  • On Thursday, prices edged lower, as rising U.S. crude inventories reinforced worries that supply remains more than adequate to meet current demand.