* Rand jumps for joy in June
* Local business confidence slumps amid rising uncertainty
* Trump and Netanyahu – frenemies!!
* World Cup is around the corner – time to bury the hatchet
* More oil escapes Hormuz

Currency Outlook

• “The USD-ZAR is trading around R16.3450/USD this morning, with the ZAR slightly softer despite remaining resilient relative to the deterioration in risk appetite. The USD has found some support from cautious global positioning, firmer oil prices and renewed tariff uncertainty, whilst the ZAR has also lost modest ground against the EUR and GBP, which are trading near R18.96/EUR and R21.93/GBP, respectively. Prior lows towards R16.2200/USD and R16.1300/USD provide support, whilst resistance is likely towards R16.4850/USD and the broader R16.50/USD handle. Rangebound trade is expected to persist, though geopolitical headlines and oil prices could be market moving.” (Source: Investec Morning Commentary dated 04.06.2026)
• The above is quite telling of the rand’s possible trajectory. We also need to see where we close the week, especially after U.S. jobs data is released on Friday.
• If the rand manages to close the week below the R16.25/USD region, this could push further strength towards R16.20/USD, R16.10/USD and below.
• However, if the rand manages to close the week above the R16.30/USD mark, we could see weaker levels towards R16.40/USD, R16.50/USD and above.

Local Data

• The ABSA manufacturing PMI fell 1.8 points to 50.8 in May after a 3.6-point increase in April but remained just above the neutral threshold of 50 in expansionary territory showing some stability in the manufacturing sector, despite slower growth momentum.
• The S&P Global South Africa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) dropped to 49.6 in May from 51.6 in April.
• The RMB/BER business confidence index (BCI) fell sharply to 39 in Q2:26 from 47.
• New vehicle sales rose 2.1% m/m to 56,000 units in May, the highest level since late 2014, with the main driver new entrants such as Chery, GWM, Jetour, Omoda, FOTON and MG.
• S&P Global Ratings maintained South-Africa’s foreign-currency LT sovereign credit rating at BB and local currency rating at BB+, while the outlook remains positive, indicating the potential for a sovereign credit rating upgrade over the next 12 to 18 months if fiscal and economic conditions continue to improve.

Interest Rate Outlook

• The SARB's 25bp rate hike to 7.00% last week was a pre-emptive move aimed at preventing higher fuel and energy costs from feeding into broader inflation and inflation expectations.
• The SARB will announce its next rate decision on July 23.

International News

• US
  • The ISM manufacturing PMI advanced to 54.0 last month, its highest reading since May 2022, from April. Economists had forecast an increase to 53.0, mainly driven by businesses front-loading orders amid concerns over rising costs and supply disruptions.
  • The U.S. Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey (JOLTS) job openings increased to 7,618,000 in April, from 6,866,000 in March.
  • The Fed's Beige Book, published on Wednesday, suggested that the U.S. economy continued to grow at a modest pace in recent weeks.
  • The U.S. dollar is currently trading at a two-month high due to renewed fighting in the Middle East, and uncertainty over a ceasefire agreement.
  • The U.S. remains optimistic that negotiations could lead to a resolution despite continued conflict.
• Euro zone
  • ECB's Frank Elderson warned that persistent geopolitical and supply-chain shocks are making inflation more difficult to ignore.
  • Flash CPI for May 2026 rose to 3.2% y/y (from 3.0% y/y in April), matching expectations but marking the highest level since late 2023.
• United Kingdom
  • BOE Governor Andrew Bailey said this week that the UK faces a challenging mix of weak growth and persistent inflation.
  • Manufacturing PMI rose to 53.9 in May (from 53.7 in April), marking the strongest expansion since May 2022. Output and new orders remained resilient.
• China
  • Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.0 in May from 50.3 in April, indicating factory activity had stalled at the threshold of the expansion/contraction, as softening domestic demand and elevated energy costs also weighed on the manufacturing sector.
  • The non-manufacturing index for May rose to 50.1 from 49.4 in April, returning to expansion territory influenced by a slight improvement in services and construction.
• Australia
  • Australia's annual CPI slowed to 4.2% y/y in April from 4.6% in March, coming in below market expectations and providing some relief on the inflation front.
  • Australia's economy grew 0.3% q/q in Q1, missing expectations and signalling slower growth momentum.
  • RBA Governor Michele Bullock said the central bank is closely monitoring the impact of higher interest rates and rising energy prices on the Australian economy.
• Japan
  • Tokyo’s y/y inflation figures stayed below the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) 2% target for a fourth straight month. On Friday data showed prices in Japan’s capital rose 1.3% y/y below a forecasted 1.5%.
  • Japan’s preliminary industrial output rose 0.8% m/m in April, outperforming expectations for a 0.4% decline, suggesting the economy was weathering the pain from rising fuel costs.
  • The data will be among the factors the BOJ will scrutinise at the next monetary policy meeting in 2 weeks.
  • The Japanese yen was last trading at 159.83 a near one month low against the U.S. dollar and close to the Central Bank’s intervention level.

Precious Metals

• Gold opened trading for the week at USD 4,517.9100/oz, moving within an intraday range of USD 4,487.0000/oz to USD 4,545.3600/oz, before settling at USD 4,483.2900/oz. Renewed tensions in the Middle East heightened inflation concerns and expectations of tighter monetary policy, which weighed on the precious metal’s prices.
• The precious metal opened at USD 4,481.8300/oz and traded within a range of USD 4,422.4900/oz to USD 4,514.2900/oz. Oil prices and the greenback edged lower, supported by renewed optimism around a potential resolution to the Middle East conflict.

Base Metals

• The base metal started the week on high, posting back-to-back gains of USD 196.00/t to close at USD 13,832/t on Monday and USD 208.50/t to settle at an over two-week high of USD 14,040.50/t on Tuesday. The uptick was supported by concerns over tightening supply, though gains were capped by uncertainties over the U.S.-Iran peace deal.
• By Thursday, copper was trading USD 13,914.00/t, reversing earlier losses as diminishing inventories offset investor concerns that prolonger middle East conflict could curb demand growth.

Oil

• Brent posted gains across three consecutive sessions, rising by USD 2.93/bbl to settle at USD 94.98/bbl, followed by an increase of USD 1.02/bbl to close at USD 96.00/bbl, and a further gain of USD 1.81/bbl to consolidate at USD 97.81/bbl.
• A ceasefire deal between Israel and Lebanon boosted expectations for a broader resolution to the Middle East conflict, potentially leading to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

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